One Big Beautiful Bill: Trump's bet on debt and robots

For many immigrants dreaming of the American Dream, the new law brings serious hurdles and fundamentally changes everyday life in the USA. The message is clear: the road to the USA is getting rockier, more expensive and socially colder.

Immigration and integration: Fortress America raises its walls

The law sharply tightens immigration and border policy and makes it plain that the focus is on deterrence and enforcement.

• Higher financial hurdles: The law introduces new or much higher fees, including $100 for asylum applications, $1,000 for people on humanitarian parole and $500 for Temporary Protected Status (TPS). This is a direct financial barrier for people seeking protection and for immigrants.

• Less access to benefits: Access to federal health programs is sharply restricted for certain non-citizens. They are barred from Medicaid/CHIP, and access to subsidized health insurance under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) becomes harder. The Child Tax Credit, an important financial support for families, is also tied to a Social Security number, which excludes many immigrant families living in the country legally.

• Massive investment in border security and deportation: $45 billion goes into expanding detention facilities for people required to leave, more than $29 billion into increasing the staff and operations of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and billions more into border wall infrastructure and support for local police in immigration enforcement. This signals a zero-tolerance policy.

For would-be expats, this means the process is not only getting more expensive, the social climate is getting harsher too. Without a strong financial cushion and a clear, sponsored path (for example through an employer), immigrating becomes extremely difficult.

Legal immigration: still open, but more demanding

It is crucial to separate the law's effects on irregular immigration from its effects on established, legitimate business visa routes such as E-2 (treaty investors), L-1 (intracompany transferees) and O-1 (individuals with extraordinary ability). Our analysis does not suggest that the legal framework for these visa categories is being abolished. Companies will most likely still be able to send executives (L-1), and entrepreneurs from treaty countries can still invest and apply for E-2 visas.

Saying these legitimate routes are "not really affected" would be an oversimplification, though. The law brings several changes that will hit these applicants and their employers, if less directly than the measures aimed at the southern border. The doors to skilled and investment-based immigration are not closing, but the process is getting more expensive and the environment less welcoming.

1. Directly higher costs: The law explicitly introduces "new or higher fees for asylum, visas, Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and certain work permits". This will directly affect business immigration. Filing fees for L-1, O-1 or E-2 petitions, paid by the company or the individual, are likely to rise. Applications for Employment Authorization Documents (EADs), which spouses of L-1 or E-2 visa holders often need in order to work, will also cost more. For families planning a move, that is a noticeable rise in the financial hurdle.

2. A thinner safety net for legal immigrants: The law actively restricts access to certain benefits even for people lawfully in the USA. It limits Premium Tax Credits (PTCs) for ACA health plans for "certain non-citizens". That raises the financial risk of moving to the USA, even for well-paid professionals. The family of an L-1 employee, for example, could face much higher healthcare costs if the employer's plan is not comprehensive or a spouse is initially out of work.

3. A hostile administrative climate: Perhaps the biggest impact is the overwhelming shift of resources and political focus. The law allocates billions of dollars to enforcement: $45 billion for expanding detention facilities, more than $29 billion for ICE operations and further billions in grants to local law enforcement. There is no mention of matching investment to make US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) more efficient, the agency that processes business visas. The likely result is an administrative bottleneck. In a political climate focused entirely on enforcement, legitimate applications could be processed more slowly, face closer scrutiny and draw more Requests for Evidence (RFEs). The whole bureaucratic experience is likely to become more of a slog.

In short, the E-2, L-1 and O-1 routes are likely to stay open. But the process will be more expensive, the financial risks for the relocating family will be higher, and the bureaucratic journey will probably be longer and harder, because the administrative machine is geared overwhelmingly toward enforcement rather than facilitation. The door is not slammed shut, but the road to the USA will be narrower, costlier and lined with more administrative hurdles than before.

Healthcare: a system shifting toward personal responsibility

The US healthcare system is the polar opposite of Europe's solidarity-based systems, and the "One Big Beautiful Bill" strengthens its market-based, individual features even further.

• Stricter Medicaid rules: Access to the government Medicaid program becomes harder for low earners. Able-bodied adults must show 80 hours of work, training or community service each month. Eligibility is reviewed every six months, which can lead to more frequent loss of coverage.

• No extension of ACA subsidies: The enhanced Advance Premium Tax Credits (APTCs) that made ACA premiums affordable expire at the end of 2025. That will make health insurance considerably more expensive for millions of people not covered through an employer.

  • A concrete example: A self-employed graphic designer in the USA who paid a monthly premium of $300 thanks to the APTCs could face a premium of $700 or more once they expire, a threat to her financial survival.

• Focus on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs): The law widens access to tax-advantaged Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) linked to high-deductible health plans (HDHPs). This promotes a system in which individuals carry more responsibility and more up-front cost for their own health.

For you as a European, this means good health insurance, ideally through an employer, matters more than ever. Going self-employed or moving to the USA without a steady job carries serious financial risk if you fall ill.

Plenty of tax breaks for broad parts of the population

While the "One Big Beautiful Bill" creates real hurdles in areas like immigration and healthcare, it also contains a sweeping package of tax relief and new deductions that will noticeably lighten the load for millions of American citizens, families and small business owners. The aim is to leave more money in taxpayers' pockets, boost consumer spending and make filing simpler for many.

Here are the key tax benefits in detail:

Core tax relief for everyone

• Permanent tax rates and brackets: The law makes the existing, lower tax rates and brackets permanent. That is a fundamental advantage, because it gives individuals and families long-term certainty for their financial planning. You can count on rates not rising unexpectedly.

• A higher, permanent standard deduction: The standard deduction rises by $750 for single filers and $1,500 for married couples filing jointly, and the higher amount is locked in permanently (adjusted for inflation).

  • Real-world impact: This is a direct tax cut for the vast majority of Americans. A higher standard deduction means a bigger share of income is tax-free from the start. Many taxpayers no longer need to itemize deductions (such as donations or medical expenses), which makes filing a tax return much simpler.

Targeted relief for working people

The law introduces several new deductions aimed squarely at workers in specific sectors:

• No tax on tips and overtime: Temporary "above-the-line" deductions are introduced. Workers can

  deduct up to $25,000 in tips and up to $12,500 in overtime pay from their taxable income. The relief depends on income and phases down for higher earners.

  • A concrete example: A restaurant server who earns $20,000 a year in tips can deduct the full amount from taxable income. That means a direct, substantial tax saving of thousands of dollars and a straight reward for work in the service sector.

• Deduction for car loan interest: A temporary deduction of up to $10,000 for interest on car loans is introduced. One key condition: final assembly of the vehicle must have taken place in the US. This deduction also depends on income.

  • Real-world impact: A double incentive: it makes buying a car more affordable while boosting the domestic auto industry in line with the "America First" agenda.

Support for families and homeowners

• A bigger Child Tax Credit: The Child Tax Credit rises by $200 per child, and the increase is made permanent. For a family with two children, that is an annual tax saving of $400, which adds up over the years. (Note, however, that claiming it requires a Social Security number.)

• A higher SALT deduction cap: The cap on deducting state and local taxes (SALT) for married couples filing jointly is raised from $10,000 to $40,000 for the next five years.

  • Real-world impact: This is massive tax relief for homeowners and higher earners in high-tax states such as California, New York or New Jersey. A family paying $50,000 a year in property and state income taxes can now deduct $40,000 instead of just $10,000, cutting its taxable income by $30,000.

Benefits for the self-employed and small business owners

• Permanent 20% pass-through deduction (Section 199A): The 20% deduction on qualified business income for sole proprietors, partnerships and other "pass-through" entities is extended permanently.

  • Real-world impact: This is one of the biggest wins for the millions of Americans working as freelancers, consultants or small business owners. A small business owner with a profit of $100,000 can effectively shield 20% of that profit ($20,000) from tax, cutting their personal tax bill dramatically.

While individuals face challenges, the law creates a highly attractive environment for business, especially in the sectors the administration favors. Tax and regulatory policy is clearly geared toward strengthening domestic production.

Tax super-incentives: the fine print that changes everything

The real gems for internationally active companies are hidden in the details of the international tax reforms, which make the US an extremely attractive place to do business.

• No "revenge tax": First, the good news for multinationals: the dreaded Section 899 proposal, a kind of "revenge tax" on companies with foreign activities, was explicitly left out of the law. That alone sends a huge signal of certainty to internationally active US companies.

• Permanent 100% bonus depreciation: Companies can write off the full cost of qualifying capital assets (machinery, equipment and so on) immediately in the year of purchase. This cuts the tax bill considerably and stimulates investment in equipment and infrastructure.

• GILTI & FDII, the 14% advantage: This is the heart of the incentive for exporters and tech companies. The tax rates on Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) earned abroad and on Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII) from exporting intangible goods are set at an

  effective rate of 14%. That is below the global minimum tax rate of 15% and creates a direct incentive to hold intellectual property (patents, software, trademarks) in the US and license or export it from there.

  • A concrete example: A European software company sets up a US subsidiary. The subsidiary develops new AI software in the US and licenses it to customers worldwide. License income from Europe and Asia is taxed in the US under the FDII regime at just 14%. At the same time, the company can fully expense its US R&D costs right away (as long as they are incurred domestically), lowering the tax bill even further. That turns the US into a tax haven for export-driven tech companies.

Betting on the automated factory: America's industrial future

The direction is unmistakable: the law lays the foundation for a highly automated reindustrialization. Given the labor shortage in the US, it is the only plausible strategy. The law backs it explicitly with targeted investments worth billions:

• Automated munitions plants: $1 billion is earmarked for developing "next-generation automated munitions production factories".

• AI and autonomy in shipbuilding: $450 million is set aside for the "application of autonomy and AI to naval shipbuilding".

• AI-driven drones: $145 million goes to "AI to enable one-way attack drones".

• Science and engineering: The Department of Energy (DOE) receives $150 million to work with industry on "self-improving AI models for science and engineering".

The strategy is clear: "manufacturing back in the US" does not mean the return of the 1950s assembly-line worker. It means building state-of-the-art, robot-driven factories run by a small, highly skilled workforce. The goal is to raise productivity, reduce dependence on foreign supply chains and, in the long run, generate enough growth to put the accumulated debt into perspective.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is a direct cash injection into the stock market. It creates an environment in which share prices in favored sectors could not just rise but potentially "go through the roof". The combination of massive government spending (direct contracts for companies), significant tax cuts (higher after-tax profits) and deregulation (lower operating costs) is rocket fuel for the stock market.

The winning sectors in detail:

• Defense ($150+ billion): This sector is the most obvious winner.

  • Northrop Grumman: Benefits directly from the $4.5 billion to accelerate production of the B-21 Raider long-range bomber.

  • Lockheed Martin: Gets a tailwind from missile defense modernization ($25 billion), accelerated hypersonic defense ($2.2 billion) and development of the nuclear-armed Sea-Launched Cruise Missile ($2 billion).

  • General Dynamics / Huntington Ingalls: Shipbuilding gets a windfall of $29 billion, including $4.6 billion for a second Virginia-class submarine in fiscal year 2026 alone.

• Infrastructure & construction:

  • ATC modernization ($12.5 billion): Companies such as Raytheon (RTX), which builds radar systems, or Leidos, a major IT contractor to the FAA that can help switch over the telecommunications infrastructure, are prime candidates here.

  • Coast Guard ($24.6 billion): Shipyards able to build patrol vessels and icebreakers will have full order books for years.

• Energy: Deregulation and support for fossil fuels will boost profits at oil and gas companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and service giants like Halliburton. This comes through requirements to hold more oil and gas lease sales and lower royalty rates.

• Semiconductors: Raising the CHIPS Act tax credit from 25% to 35% makes investing in US chip plants even more attractive for companies such as Intel, Micron and TSMC.

Behind the shiny facade of growth and strength lie significant risks and strategic choices that deserve a critical look. The law is a bet on the future, and the stake is America's long-term stability.

Short-term tactics: winning the midterms

Every part of this law also has to be seen through a political lens. The massive spending and tax cuts are a stimulus package designed to take effect just in time for the midterm elections. Targeted support for defense (important in the Southern states), traditional industry (important in the "Rust Belt") and agriculture locks in backing in key regions. It is a policy built to forge a broad voter coalition through tangible economic benefits and to hold on to power in Congress.

Long-term risks: the debt bomb is ticking

Financing this policy is its Achilles' heel. The mix of radical tax cuts and enormous spending increases will push US national debt to a new, unimaginable level. The long-term bet is that economic growth driven by AI and automation will be strong enough to keep the debt burden sustainable relative to GDP. That is a high-risk assumption. Such a rapid rise in national debt could pressure the Federal Reserve (the Fed) into buying government bonds on a massive scale (quantitative easing) to keep interest rates low and prevent a collapse of the financial system. That would fuel inflation and threaten the stability of the dollar over the long run.

A strategic mistake: the gift to China

Arguably the most short-sighted decision in the law is penalizing electric mobility and turning away from green technology. It does this by cutting funding for sustainable transport, such as the Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicle Program ($1 billion) and the Neighborhood Access and Equity Grant Program ($3 billion), and by abolishing the penalties for missing fleet fuel economy targets (CAFE). This is not just anti-climate policy, it is a strategic mistake of geopolitical proportions.

• Energy independence: While the US bets on fossil fuels, whose markets are global and volatile, China is securing the lead in the technologies that represent the future of energy: batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. Cheaper, home-produced energy is a decisive competitive advantage, and the US risks throwing it away.

• Market leadership: The US is handing China the global markets for future technologies without a fight. Instead of building on the head start created by the IRA and growing an American green industry, it is leaving the field. The consequences will be geopolitical as well as economic, as technology standards and supply chains are increasingly dominated by Beijing.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is an invitation to join a high-risk but potentially hugely profitable bet on the American economy. It charts a course for an America that builds its economic future on automation, AI, a dominant defense industry and cheap fossil energy.

• For entrepreneurs, this means accepting the new rules of the game: if you produce, innovate and invest in the favored sectors in the US, you will be rewarded with unprecedented tax and regulatory advantages.

• For investors, rebalancing the portfolio is unavoidable. Tomorrow's winners are clearly defined and will benefit from government contracts and deregulation.

• For everyone involved, though, it is crucial to recognize the enormous risks: exploding national debt that could endanger the entire system in the long run, and the strategic miscalculation of ceding leadership in the energy technologies of the 21st century to China. The game in America has become more lucrative, but the stakes are far higher.

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For a compact overview of the law, see our article Big Beautiful Bill 2025; to find out what the reform means for your tax return, read our article on the 2026 US tax season after the OBBBA. You will find more articles under News.

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